Starmer’s downfall really started before he won the election. The ‘Ming vase’ strategy of saying as little as possible, along with the “no new taxes on working working people” promise, guaranteed a visionless, impotent government – even with a large majority. But in a way, it’s impressive it only took two years for the party to dump him.

Burnham clearly has a vision for where he wants to take the country – and it’s not without costs. He has four options:

  • Honour the previous Labour manifesto promises, and basically be Starmer with a Northern accent. He will not do this.

  • Spend more but stick to the promise of no raising taxes on NI and income tax, so borrow more or tinker with some other taxes. At one extreme, this means he needs to water down his plans; at the other, he has a Truss-style exit.

  • Break with the last manifesto and go ahead without a mandate. I think this is a non-starter from a party management point of view. We’ve seen the Starmer government struggle to pass welfare reform; how is Burnham going to do anything unpopular without any mandate?

  • Spend a few months preparing a 10-year plan, and go to the country with a new manifesto.

Burnham’s wanted the job for so long, will he really settle for doing it half-baked for 3 years?